Siu Lun

I believe the US is more likely to enter into deflation, and possibly a double dip. The validation required for this to happen is when Chinese imports stops growing. The timing of which will affect the severity of the double dip.

Logic dictates that for an economy to raise it’s exports, there must be markets who are willing to take it in as imports.

China, with the largest population in the world, contains the ability to pull everybody out of recession.

However, China’s is at the moment is trying to cool it’s red hot economy to a more sustainable level, as the country could be engulfed in the biggest bubble ever to burst in the history of economics. (due to it’s large population) and unrest due to the disparity between the rich and the poor.

But if China’s attempt to cool it’s economy shifts to a point where by the level of imports is not enough to create growth in the US, the US will very likely enter into deflation.

From a strategical stand-point however, history, human nature of conquest, of being the best, it may seem to me that it is actually IN China’s interest that US enters into a long bad recession. Much like US vs Russia during the cold war.

Warfare has developed to a point where it is no longer viable, or feasible. However, the modern economy I believe is the new battleground. Cynical as it may seem, anybody who’ve played a game on the world, ran a country, what is their ultimate objective? If not to bring prosperity and superiority to their own people and ultimately themselves.

Cynical as it may seem, the recent moves by the Chinese government to offload US treasuries, and to stress-test their otherwise healthy banking system for 60% drop in property prices, could be seen as a pre-emptive check, on the impact of a double dip in the US. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-02/18/content_9473134.htm

This opinion might be too far fetched, but an even more worrying and more subdue scenario is that China continues to grow just enough that the US do not enter into recession, thereby, preserving the integrity of the debt they hold, and over the next half of the century, milk the US.

Whether these come true or not, not really my concern, but I sense the financial crisis of 2008, signals the start of the next chapter of events that would change the world, and I feel excited by the thought of it.

Later.

Vision, insight, observation, deduced knowledge maybe obvious once spoken, but not many people have that gift in the first place to think of such things and out of those who has the gift of high conciousness, not many people can act without involving politics.

Hence… why
maintaining a distant relationship with people is important
secrecy is paramount
and dictatorship can lead to success

This is not news to those of us who’ve been keeping track of the next CPU that can play our favourite games in the highest possible resolution.

AMD will be coming out with an APU in 2011, a CPU+GPU hybrid processing unit and I have put my theory in my mouth and speculate that AMD will see a revival of their business to squarely compete with Intel very soon.

I believe the APU AMD is working on will in fact be revolutionary, and may in the future render standalone GPUs obsolete. Hence Nvidia, who’s core business model relies on the GPUs will most likely see a lot more of their market share simply disappearing into a new area.

Intel would be scared of this advancement as back in the days of the Athlon FX, AMD beat Intel’s processors by miles in terms of gaming performance and propelled AMD into the limelight for a while until Intel’s come back with the Core CPU.

Intel itself is also working on a CPU+GPU, but the problem Intel has, is that it doesn’t really have a GPU that is powerful enough to compete with AMD ATI’s offerings. Hence why, I believe, should AMD pull it off in 2011, Nvidia and Intel would be the perfect match to tackle AMD ATI.

This all boils down to whether AMD can successfully pull it off of course, but have faith, as I believe, APU will actually not only be beneficial for space and power, but also performance. This requires a little more explanation, but essentially, when CPU+GPU can interact within the same processor unit, the communication latency would be dramatically reduced as the lines from the GPU does not need to travel the same amount of distance to get to the CPU, hence increasing performance.

How would ordinary users be able to install an APU powered PC, we still have not much idea today, but it’s a good bet that whatever the case, AMD is on the right track.

Did I also mention AMD ATI’s graphics cards would be used in all Mac computer range soon?

Disclosure: I own AMD shares.

UPDATE: 31/07/2010. APU performance numbers for Ontario leaked: http://is.gd/dU8Ms Can’t wait for Orochi.